British manufacturers turn export markets to us amid trade turmoil in the Trump era
British manufacturers are retreating from the United States, a key export market, in the face of trade uncertainty and punitive tariffs driven by former President Donald Trump’s protectionist agenda.
For the first time in the history of the Manufacturing UK Quarterly Survey, the United States has fallen out of the top three regions that British manufacturers expect to do business. The latest data from industrial employer lobby groups reveals a sharp shift in sentiment, reflecting concerns across the field that U.S. trade policy has hurt long-standing transatlantic business relations.
A UK survey of its 20,000 company members in partnership with accounting firm BDO found that 60% of British manufacturers hope Trump-era tariffs would harm their business. Only 4% of respondents said they plan to invest in or build new businesses in the United States, indicating a sharp drop in confidence.
The economic background is already fragile. British manufacturers are struggling to cope with ongoing inflationary pressures, especially due to high energy costs, which has led the UK to say it pushes the country to the brink of “de-industrialization.”
In response, the group has cut its forecast for UK manufacturing growth and now predicts that the industry will shrink by 0.2% in 2025 in 2024. This is contrary to previous expectations of moderate recovery. The group also reduced its 2026 forecast to 0.5% from 1% growth, after announcing a £2 billion drop in exports to the United States, the largest monthly decline since the record in 1997.
“Manufacturers are facing a huge storm of uncertainty in a major market, skills crisis and attractive energy costs, which is a harsh reality for many,” said Seamus Nevin, chief economist at Make UK Make Uk. “It is absolutely crucial to take bold steps to reduce energy costs and to act equally radically to ensure companies can reach the people they need to take advantage of the more competitive landscape.”
Newen warned that without emergency action, the UK would face “serious prospects of accelerating deindustrialization.”
Once a reliable and growing export destination, the United States has now fallen into the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. The EU remains the main trading group for UK manufacturers, but the dynamics of the shift suggest that for many companies, the repositioning of global strategies is broader.
It’s not just the sound of British manufacturers sending out alarms. Make UK cites a parallel survey by the National Association of Manufacturers, which shows that confidence in the U.S. manufacturing industry has fallen to its lowest point since the COVID-19-19 pandemic. Trade policy uncertainty is identified as the biggest concern.
These findings will increase increasing pressure on the Labor government, which has been in office for nearly a year to ultimately implement its long-running industrial strategy. The business community is calling for decisive action to address the energy costs and structural labor shortages of the spiral, both of which are killing growth and investment in industries that are crucial to the future of the UK economy.
Although the United States remains a strong global economy, the signal from a UK manufacturing base is clear: Confidence is fading under the shadow of trade wars, tariff barriers and rising uncertainty – exporters are elsewhere.
