Analyze the promotion of electric truck sales deals in China’s new blow to diesel use
Sam Li and Lewis Jackson
China’s Raffin (Reuters) Electric-powered heavy trucks quickly gained market share in China, driven by subsidies and rapid rollout of chargers, further curbing diesel use and weakening oil demand from the world’s largest rough importer.
The boom in China’s electric truck sales follows the increase in electric vehicles and LNG-powered heavy trucks in recent years. These factors, coupled with a slowdown in economic growth, have stifled the growth of its oil consumption.
According to consulting firm Sublime Chine Information (SCI), the world’s largest new energy truck market is estimated to have sales of 175% in the first half of this year, reaching 76,100, accounting for about a quarter of new truck sales. Electric models are still used for short-distance operations in ports, mines or steel mills, accounting for more than 90% of this increase.
The rapid pace surprised analysts, who therefore revised their diesel demand forecasts and proposed their forecasts for the peak of China’s oil demand.
SCI analyst Xi Jinping said he lowered the company’s Chinese diesel demand expectations by 1%-2%, given the boom in electric truck sales.
“The surge in electric heavy trucks is surprising and has become a new factor that accelerates China’s oil consumption to its peak, most likely this year,” said Ye Lin, vice president of Rystad Energy.
Rystad data shows that by 2030, the transportation sector burned about two-thirds of diesel engines and would use 40%, reducing overall diesel consumption by about a quarter, while levels in 2024 will be reduced by about a quarter.
According to SCI, diesel consumption is expected to fall by 11.3 million tons, or 6.3%, this year, comparable to last year’s decline.
‘Beijing to Yunnan’
More than six years after the wheels of a diesel truck, Li Shuai drove to a cement factory in Hebei Province near Beijing and turned to an electric truck six months ago.
“In the past six months, charging infrastructure has improved significantly, making things more convenient,” said Li, 38. “It is even possible to drive an empty truck over 2,000 kilometers from Beijing to Yunnan and pick up goods without worrying.”
The basis for the rapid establishment of charging infrastructure mainly through industrial corridors is the basis for adoption, although the charging time can be extended to 90 minutes and the limited availability of chargers in some areas remains.
TELD, a provider of electric vehicle charging infrastructure, has established more than 2,400 truck charging stations in China, and in March, it officially opened an 800-km corridor connecting Shanxi and Shandong Provinces, a key route in the country’s coal-producing region.
