By Richard Pagliaro Thursday, January 29, 2026
Photo credit: Matthew Stockman/Getty for WTA Tour
Melbourne’s motto is four seasons in one day.
grand slam champion Alina Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina Thunder has been thrown to the ground.
Two top players didn’t drop a set in Saturday’s Australian Open final as they battled for the title.
World No. 1 Sabalenka and No. 5 Rybakina each had consecutive wins in rematches of the 2023 AO finals, with the Belarusian team coming back from behind 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 in a thrilling title fight.
Top-seeded Sabalenka has won 13 consecutive major hard-court tournaments and is competing for her third Australian Open title and fifth major hard-court title.
The fiery Rybakina has won 19 of her last 20 matches, beating nine straight top-10 opponents in that span, including a 6-3, 7-6(0) victory over Sabalenka in the WTA Finals championship last November. Rybakina was the last woman to defeat Sabalenka and the last woman to defeat the Belarusian in a tiebreaker.
Here’s our Australian Open final preview and predictions.
(1) Aryna Sabalenka VS (5) Elena Rybakina (Kazakhstan)
Head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 8-6
Grand Slam clash: Sabalenka leads 2-0
Australian Open record: Sabalenka 34-6 (best result: champion in 2023 and 2024); Rybakina 20-6 (best result: finalist in 2023 and 2026)
2026 record: Sabalenka 11-0; Rybakina 8-1
Career Grand Slam record: Sabalenka 106-26; Rybakina 65-22
Career titles: Sabalenka 22; Rybakina 11
Career Grand Slam titles: Sabalenka 4, Rybakina 1
Age: Sabalenka 27; Rybakina 26
Height: Sabalenka 5’11”; Rybakina 6’0
Career bonuses: Sabalenka $45,397,966; Rybakina $24,476,357
Aryna Sabalenka on Elena Rybakina:
“I think she hits the ball hard, deep, flat. It’s not easy to work with, but we have a great history. She’s an unbelievable player. We’ve had a lot of great battles, we’ve played a lot of finals. I’m looking forward to fighting that force…
“Me and her, we’re both different players. [than 2023]. We experienced different things. We’re stronger mentally and physically and we’re playing better now. So I will look at this as a completely different game and we have a long history after that final. So I will treat this game as the first game and I will do my best. “
Elena Rybakina on Aryna Sabalenka:
“The last game we played here, it was very close. I think I certainly had some small chances throughout the match, but at the end of the third set, I think Elena stepped in. Her serve was better. Yes, she deserved the win.
“Of course, many years have passed and a lot of matches have been played. Hopefully with the experience I gained from the last match, the last time I played a final here, I can bring that to Saturday’s match and try my best and, of course, focus on my serve. Because we are both very aggressive players and serve is important. Yeah, fighting until the end and hopefully this time it goes as I want.”
Why Aryna Sabalenka will win
The world No. 1 is just as explosive as Rybakina, but Sabalenka moves better, especially forward, can deflect spin more easily and can provide authoritative answers on the court. Look for Sabalenka, the 2021 AO doubles champion, to close the net from time to time and occasionally hit lobs or short-angle slices to disrupt Rybakina’s rhythm. Working on her net play with former doubles world No. 1 co-coach Max Mirnyi, Sabalenka has served and volleyed at times this season and has the versatility, explosive weapons and confidence to keep Rybakina off balance.
Forehand exchange is crucial here. Two-time AO champion Sabalenka’s forehand has more spin, while Rybakina’s forehand is heavy and flat, but the Kazakh tends to hit her forehand crosscourt in a predictable manner – especially under pressure. Sabalenka knows this and will be prepared for it. If both men are serving well, a tiebreak may well come into play. Tie-break tiger Sabalenka has won 20 consecutive major tie-breaks, setting an Open era record, and continues to improve her game under tie-break pressure. Top-seeded Sabalenka peaked at the perfect time: She lost just eight games in the quarterfinals and semifinals to become the first woman since legendary Hall of Famer Martina Hingis in 2002 to advance to four consecutive AO finals. Sabalenka is very excited to regain the AO crown. She has great respect for Rybakina’s strength and will win the crown with strength and purpose.
Why Elena Rybakina will win
The serve and return are the most important shots in the sport. 2025 WTA leading ace Rybakina is not only the most devastating serve player in the game, she is also a dangerous returner who excels at using her wide wingspan to launch deep returns from the wings. Consider her last three matches: Rybakina defeated former AO doubles champion Elise Mertens, world No. 2 Iga Swiatek and No. 6 Jessica Pegula. In those three wins (against three highly skilled receivers), Rybakina hit 27 aces, committed just four double faults, and led the tournament with 41 aces in six games (Sabarenka had 22 aces in six games).
Yes, Sabalenka is clearly the best player in the world, but Rybakina has been playing some of the best tennis in the world in recent months. The 2022 Wimbledon champion has won 19 of his last 20 matches. Rybakina defeated nine top-10 opponents in a row during this remarkable stretch, including Sabalenka. Remember, Rybakina saved two set points in Game 10 last November and then used a perfect tiebreaker to sweep Sabalenka 6-3, 7-6(0) to capture her first WTA Finals title and a record WTA championship prize of $5.235 million.
A stoic competitor, Rybakina reveals little about how she feels on the court, and she won’t be overly awed by Sabalenka’s strength or physical presence because she craves speed and because she just beat the world No. 1 on Nov. 8.
prophecy
If the past is prologue, then we’re in for a fiery final featuring electrifying one-shot tennis from two of the game’s greatest hitters. When Rybakina dominates, she can disarm any woman in the match, even Sabalenka. Expect Rybakina to hit a wide serve from the ad side to launch her first attack. If you’re Sabalenka, you’ll want to wait for the throw to rise, then take a few steps to the left to intercept the favored Rybakina serve angle. Rybakina beat 5-foot-7 Jessica Pegula with a ferocious second-serve kick, but 5-foot-11 Sabalenka is taller, stronger and can spin the ball better than Pegula.
I consider this final to be a real win or loss because both Grand Slam champions have the ability and power to command the center of the court and dictate the direction of the match from the first attack. Eight of the 14 meetings between the two sides went to three sets.
If you choose Rybakina, I can’t argue with you – she’s playing the best tennis right now and her serve is the most powerful shot on the court.
Still, I’m riding with Sabalenka here. I believe the world number one has more versatility, she can do more with the ball and she thrives on Rod Laver Court. After a few big losses last season, when she lost to Coco Gauff in the French Open final and Amanda Anisimova in the Wimbledon semifinals, I saw Sabalenka’s dynamic groundstrokes and determination propel her to a third straight Grand Slam hard-court title.
Featured: Aryna Sabalenka d. Elena Rybakina Group 3
