The ASEAN light vehicle (LV) market grew 1% in May, marking a fourth straight month of growth. In a country, Indonesia It is the only market with a monthly decline in sales, down 14% year-on-year.
In addition, recent information shows that Indonesia’s performance continued to decline in June, down 23% year-on-year. This led to an overall decline of 8% for the entire H1 2025 compared to the same period last year. The main reasons for poor performance are generally weak purchasing power and tightening of auto loan approvals. In addition, the effects of temporary tax cuts occurring between the first and third quarters of 2023 may hinder the volume since 2023.
Although May and June sales experienced double-digit declines, in this report, our Indonesian sales forecast for 2025 increased slightly to 749k units as the June volume was slightly stronger than we expected. Consumers may make purchases on the upcoming Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show (GIIAS), which will include new model launches and aggressive sales campaigns. However, our situation remains the same: sales are expected to continue to decline for the third consecutive year due to the challenges of the economy.
exist Malaysiaregistration data show that H1 LV sales fell by 8% in 2025, mainly due to slow results in January (-24% year-on-year). However, since then, the market has gradually improved. Despite the YoY slowdown, H1 totals can still be considered a strong result, given that the market hit a new record high for three consecutive years at 711k units in 2022, 792k units in 2023, and 817k units in 2024. The outlook for Malaysia remains unchanged from our previous report, with a drop of 4% YoY to 789k units projected in 2025. However, consumers may rush to buy in Q4 Avoid rising in 2026 in 2025. It is worth noting that the government will change the tax calculation method, called Open Market Value (OMV), which will increase the price of locally produced models. Initially, the OMV was planned to be implemented in January 2025, but it has been postponed to January 2026. We will closely monitor this development. If the government announces the implementation of OMV in January 2026, it may be advanced to the fourth quarter of 2025.
for ThailandMay sales recorded a significant rebound, mainly due to strong demand for BEV. The surge can be attributed to the competitive price strategy adopted by Chinese automakers, making their products increasingly appealing to consumers. Instead, pickup truck sales continue to experience a significant decline. Despite the encouraging performance of the May, the number remained negative throughout the January-May period with an overall contraction of 4%. This decline is characterized by a 1% increase in PV sales and a 15% decrease compared to LCV. Given the unexpected photovoltaic sales in May, we have revised our forecast for the year and now expect the Thai market to reach 571K units in 2025, indicating that the Thai market will be slightly 0.9% compared to 2024.
Source: GlobalData
