Did the gold bull run away? Why Motilal Oswal signal pauses, but JP Morgan sees more upside

Analysts say gold prices have shown an upward shift in the past few months, giving investors an annual return of more than 30% in 2024 and 2025. This shows that the market is approaching the integration stage.

BMI, a global research firm based on Motilal Oswal Wealth Management (MOWM) and Fitch Solutions units in Mumbai, now expects limited room for gold bars to rise in the near future.

What drives the rally?

BMI recently released a report illustrate“We keep our 2025 gold price forecast at an average of $3,100 per ounce and remain neutral to prices in the coming months.” Despite recent geopolitical spikes, including the Israel-Iran escalation in June, BMI believes most geopolitical premiums have been priced.

It stressed that Gore hit a seven-week intraday high on June 16 after Israel’s strike against Iran, but failed to violate the $3,500/ounce record seen in April. “At this stage, there is only one full-scale regional war that could put the price above $4,000 per ounce,” BMI noted.

Motilal Oswal: “We call it exit”

In the highlighted notes “Taurus Run: We Call It Exit”Several headwinds — including geopolitical risks, inflationary pressures and weak dollar — have been included in the current rally, Mowm said.

“In the past 25 years, Comex Gold has never achieved 32% in a year. As prices have risen, the market seems to be fatigued,” the broker said. It added that new and meaningful catalysts must emerge for gold to rise further.

JP Morgan remains bullish: $4,000/oz

By contrast, JP Morgan research remains strongly optimistic. It put gold into the average price of $3,675/oz in Q4 2025 and climbed to $4,000/oz in Q2 2026. “Our continued structural bull case for gold and has increased our price target accordingly,” said Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodity strategy at JP Morgan.

Kaneva noted that in the potential Trump administration, the probability of recession, central bank purchases, and trade-related uncertainty are drivers who can keep golden buoyancy. “We expect flooring to be around $2,800 per ounce,” she added.

What’s next for gold?

• On July 2, the price of gold on site was $3,335.52 per ounce, while the price of August futures was $3,345.35 per ounce.

• Gold futures on India MCX are around Rs 97,101 per 10 grams.

• Both MOWM and BMI believe that the Fed’s policy posture and macroeconomic signs will be crucial to future price directions.

While some analysts call for Gold’s historic bull run, others still believe in further upside potential for 2025-26. For investors, the key is to watch the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the demand of central banks and geopolitical triggers.