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The regime appears to be turning inwards after a 12-day war between Israel and Iran – escalating at a shocking rate.
According to Kasra Aarabi, director of research at the joint anti-nuclear Iran, the Islamic Republic is accelerating what he calls “the North Korean-style model of isolation and control.”
“We have witnessed a kind of family segregation that will have a significant impact on the Iranian people,” Aarabi told Fox News Digital. “The regime has always been totalitarian, but the level of repression is unprecedented. It’s different from what we’ve seen before.”
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un fired fire at North Korean artillery on Thursday, March 7, 2024. (Korea Central News Agency/Korea News Service through AP, file)
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A source inside Iran confirmed to Fox News Digital that “suppression has become scary.”
Aarabi, who maintains direct contact in Iran, describes his own rulers in a country that is besieged. In Tehran, he described how to stop citizens at random, whose phones were confiscated and searched. “If your content is considered pro-Israel or ridiculed the regime, it disappears,” he said. “People now leave their phones at home or delete everything and then go out.”
He explained that this new wave of paranoia and fear reflects the tactics seen in North Korea – citizens disappeared without explanation and information. In the recent conflict, Iranian leaders have imposed a full-scale internet blackout to isolate populations, block Israel’s evacuation alerts, and promote propaganda to make Israel unparalleled targeting civilians.
“It was an injustice goal, and they deliberately cut communication to instill fear and manipulate public perceptions. In four days, no message was delivered. Even the Israeli evacuation alarm did not reach the target.”
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was a military, air force and air defense tribute when the meeting began in Tehran, Iran on February 8, 2018. (The official website of the Iranian Supreme Leader is through the AP office)
The regime’s goal, he said, is twofold: keeping people away from the streets and eroding the surprising bonds formed between the Iranians and the Israelis. “At the beginning of the war, many Iranians welcomed the strike,” Arabi noted. “They knew Israel was targeting the IRGC, which was the force responsible for suppressing and killing their own people. But once the internet was cut and feared, some people began to question what was going on.”
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“It’s easy to suppress people in the family. This is what they can do. Therefore, it’s unlikely that Iran will become more isolated, more authoritarian, more repressive, and more similar to the North today, say North Korea – than today. This is probably the only view they see: By telling the Iranians the bondage, the Iranians can be secured, and the Foxes can be secured,” the figure.
On April 9, 2023, CCTV cameras were seen on a street in Tehran, Iran. (Majid Asgaripour/Wana (Western Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
Within the power structure of the regime, the consequences of war are equally serious. Arabi said the Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) is facing a crisis of internal trust and an imminent clearance. “These actions wouldn’t have happened without the highest levels of penetration,” he said. “There is a lot of pressure to clean up the house now.”
The next generation of IRGC officials – who joined after 2000 – are young, more radical, deeply instilled. Now, more than half of their training is ideological. Aarabi said the newer factions have begun to launch senior commanders, accusing them of being too soft about Israel and even working with Mossad.
“Ironically, Khamenei created these extreme ideological hierarchies to consolidate power, and now they are more radical than him,” Aarabi said. “He is trying to control them.”
A police motorcycle burned in protest of the death of Mahsa Amini, who died after being arrested by the Islamic Republic’s “moral police” in Tehran, Iran on September 19, 2022. (WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)
The rise of young, inexperienced commanders may lead to a higher risk tolerance rise, a shift that could make the IRGC more turbulent both domestically and internationally. With the ruins of Iran’s conventional military doctrine, terrorism may become the main leverage of its influence.
“The three pillars of the regime – the militia, ballistic missiles and their nuclear programs – were all beheaded or severely degraded,” Aarabi said. “This only leaves asymmetric wars: soft-target terrorism has reasonable deniality.”
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Left and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (by Getty Images AFP)
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Despite the regime’s sharp turn inward, Arabi insisted that it was a sign of weakness rather than strength. “If the Islamic Republic is full of confidence, it does not have to smash its people in this way,” he said. “It is an act of fear. But the streets will remain silent until the regime’s suppression equipment is demolished – a change in regime remains impossible.”
