Inflation of food prices in the UK accelerated in June as temperatures and extreme weather soared and fruit and vegetable harvest rates were high, pushing up prices for supermarket farming.
New figures from the British Retail Alliance (BRC) show that annual food price inflation rose to 3.7% in June, up from 2.8% in May. This marks the first rise in store price inflation in nearly a year as consumers continue to feel squeezed by climate-related crop disruptions and greater cost pressures.
Retailers will directly link the increase to lower crop yields from hot dry weather, suggesting that the climate crisis is beginning to have a more obvious and lasting impact on UK food prices.
“We predict a significant increase in food inflation by the end of this year, as geopolitical tensions and the impact of climate change accelerated. Retailers have warned that since last fall the budget and the huge rise in national insurance costs for employers and national living wages for sex and national living wages,” said BRC CEO Helen Dickinson.
The wholesale price of seasonal fruits rose the biggest, with currants rising 243% each year, blackberries rising 25%, raspberries rising 15%, and apples and strawberries rising 7% and 3% respectively.
For British farmers, fluctuating and extreme weather patterns are becoming increasingly expensive. Industry estimates that in addition to the effects of drought and high calorie, wet weather during key planting seasons caused nearly £1.2 billion in crop losses last year.
The impact of climate breakdown is now felt globally, and poor harvest and geopolitical conflicts have affected supply chains and commodity prices. Earlier this year, global high temperatures caused chocolate prices to soar as cocoa crops suffer losses in West Africa, while coffee prices soared due to adverse weather in Brazil and Vietnam.
In the UK, the latest food price increases are in line with huge business cost pressures. Retailers have repeatedly warned that recent fiscal policy decisions have forced their prices to reach pricing. Prime Minister Rachel Reeves’ fall budget proposed £25 billion in employer state insurance contributions, and the country’s living wage rose 6.7% from April.
Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insights at Nielseniq, helped compile BRC’s monthly figures, noting that weather and wider supply chain changes contribute to inflation. “While good weather at the moment helps increase demand for many retailers, rising prices could become a problem if consumers are willing to spend less later this year,” he said. “This means we can expect retailers to strengthen their message of value throughout the summer.”
Total store price inflation, including non-food goods, rose to 0.4% in June, higher than the slight shrinkage of -0.1% in May. Analysts expect retailers to continue to balance price pressures with consumer demand, especially as economic uncertainty and environmental volatility continue.
