New research shows that sunken land has become a serious problem in parts of the San Joaquin Valley, and it is starting to lower housing prices.
Houses are also sinking in most of the central California valley, and roads, bridges, canals and dams are also sinking as excessive water is drawn from the underground aquifers.
Now, UC Riverside researchers have Discover The home sells 2.4% to 5.4% lower than the land-stable price, which translates to a loss of $6,689 to $16,165 per household. This article focuses on sales between 2015 and 2021.
Mehdi Nemati, assistant professor of environmental economics and policy at UC Riverside who led the study, said his team knew that sinking land had affected homes and homeowners in the Central Valley, its foundation, dry wells, higher insurance premiums and increased pressure. But he said their grades shocked them.
“We were surprised because land settlement is not like floods or wildfires,” Neymarti said, describing those disasters that are more visual and sudden. “Land settlement is a very slow problem.”
Economists found that land settlement has reduced the value of homes in eight counties in the San Joaquin Valley by $1.87 billion over the six-year period.
“The purpose of this study is to tell us that it is not only a sinking ground, but a billion dollar problem for decades of overuse of groundwater,” Nemati said.
Research, Published in the journal Land Economicsanalyses home sales and “vertical ground floating space” throughout the San Joaquin Valley.
Although it is clear that there is a strong correlation between higher settlement rates and areas with greater decline in housing value, he said his team spent more than a year building a causal relationship. They did this and made a pair of similar homes, each sold twice over a six-year period, one in a settlement area and one without.
“In general, the value of homes in California – you know – is rising,” Nemati said.
Brad Franklin, a researcher at the California Water Policy Center Institute for Public Policy, said the findings from the study are credible. But other factors could also affect local level housing prices, he said.
“If you talk to real estate agents across the Central Valley, they definitely have a lot of theories about driving house prices,” Franklin said. “And I hope land settlement will be very low on the list of things they think will affect prices.”
Agricultural wells attract a large amount of groundwater, reducing the level of the aquifer. This results in a compact layer of underground clay. In parts of the San Joaquin Valley, the ground sinks a few inches a year.
This phenomenon has been changing the landscape of the valley since the early 1900s. In the past decade, the ground in some areas has sunk 1 foot per year.
In the nearest other studyStanford University researchers also found that the problem has been worsening in recent years, with most valleys falling at record rates since 2006. As climate change is released, the problem deepens Longer, more intense drought.
Under California’s groundwater law, local agencies must Work hard plan Limit pumping and addressing overdrafts by 2040.
Researchers predict that most areas of the Central Valley irrigated farmland will require permanent drying to comply with restrictions. Meanwhile, the state is prioritizing projects that capture more stormwater to help replenish groundwater and slow land settlement.
Relevant research results show that lower house value is a more expensive impact of chronic groundwater surplus and deserves attention.
“It’s not only the small communities that run out of the aquifers. In fact, you actually affect the wealth accumulation of homeowners in the valley, but their ability to sell their homes at a loss,” Fink said.
She said local groundwater officials should look at how they protect homeowners, how to reduce pumping and how to replenish groundwater to help solve the problem. Fink said the goal should be to prevent “very obvious harm caused by this widespread overuse of groundwater.”
She said she hopes the link between settlement and home value can lead to “summoning crying” among people in the valley, who think “we are not pumping people, but you are affecting our ability to maintain and sell homes.”
This is a major problem and requires a lot of solutions, the researchers say. Of the eight counties they studied, the rapidly settled areas fell about 7 inches or more per year, and a portion of Tulare and Kings counties saw the most dramatic movement, one foot or more per year.
Nemati said the state’s sustainable groundwater management laws are crucial to combating land settlement.
“We can see how much the price of doing nothing,” Nemati said. “We can’t restore the land – settlement is permanent – but we can slow down or even stop it. The market is already telling us it’s worth the investment.”
Senator Melissa Hurtado (D-Bakersfield) said she has been hearing about settlement that affects the value of homes and properties. She said the sinking ground damaged her own parents’ home in Sanger.
“Setting is creating foundation problems in the home,” Hertado said. “It has been creating cracks in the tiles and walls.”
Hertado noted that the value of agricultural land is also declining.
She blamed the state’s sustainable groundwater management bill and the ongoing implementation of “bad actors,” including hedge funds and other external investors who are one of the region’s major water users.
“When you live in this community… you obviously care about this community. You will do everything possible to alleviate the problem of groundwater depletion,” Hurtado said. “But if you are not, you really don’t care because you don’t live there and it won’t affect you.”
