If Alcaraz and Sinner falter, one of them could win the AO crown – Tennis Now

By Richard Pagliaro Thursday, January 15, 2026
Photo credit: Daniel Puckett/Getty

Now, the big finals are as unique as the members-only celebrations.

World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and No. 2 Jannik Sinner The two teams won eight consecutive Grand Slam titles and set a record for three consecutive finals in the Open era.

The gap between New Two and the rest of the team is so wide that closing it looks as easy as leaping across the Yarra River.

Former world no.1 Daniil Medvedev Showing that displacing the top two players in the world in 2026 is an impossible task, for one simple reason: they are far better than everyone else.

“Hey, when someone hits the ball better than you, puts everything on the court, runs absolutely as fast as you, serves as good as you, it’s hard to beat him,” Medvedev said. “But you can always try. But with the consistency they showed last year, it’s almost impossible for anyone to get to No. 2.

“But, you know, the Grand Slam [are] On top of that, they made it to the finals three out of four times last year. But you can always beat them in a game. “

ESPN analyst Patrick McEnroe In an interview with Tennis Now, he believed that the gap between Alcaraz and Sinner and the rest of the ATP players was even greater than the gap between the Big Three in their prime.

“To me, they’re even further away than the big three of the past two years, which says something because these guys have been dominant, but you’ve got Murray, you’ve got Wawrinka, you’ve got Delpo, you’ve got Cilic, you’ve got some guys that have joined in,” McEnroe told “Tennis Now” during an ESPN Zoom call on Tuesday afternoon.

“But at the moment, it’s hard to imagine anyone else getting into it, even someone like Ben Shelton, who’s getting closer.”

We are likely to see reigning Australian Open champion Sinner, who will become the first player since Novak Djokovic to win three consecutive titles at Melbourne Park, and Alcaraz, who is hoping to become the youngest player to complete all the Grand Slams, face off in the Australian Open final on February 1.

However, if one of the top two fails to make it, who has the best chance of making it to the final?

Here are our picks for the top five party animals in Melbourne Park.

(4) Novak Djokovic

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The 10-time AO champion, the most successful player in Open history, returns to his favorite course in pursuit of a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title. Djokovic, arguably still the most complete player in the sport, beat Alcaraz in the quarterfinals of the 2025 Australian Open on Rod Laver Arena and has looked good, reaching the semifinals of all four Grand Slams last year and winning his last match in Athens last fall. Despite his advanced age, the Serbian superstar remains a top-notch problem-solver, fueled by skeptics. If I had $10 every time a country bumpkin declared, “Put a fork in Djokovic and he’s dead,” I could buy you box seats at AO and a house on the Gold Coast for life. You have to keep serving to master the majors. Djokovic ranks fourth in points on serve on the 2025 ATP Tour, behind Sinner, Taylor Fritz and Giovanni Mpehi-Pericad, and ahead of Carlos Alcaraz, who ranks sixth in points on serve. Djokovic was the last man not named Alcaraz or Sinner to lift a Grand Slam trophy.

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Time is the only undefeated opponent in tennis. At 38, Djokovic is still incredibly resilient, but can his body, battered by nearly 1,400 career matches, recover round by round in a best-of-five-set format? Given that Djokovic has lost five straight games to Sinner and is in the bottom half of the two-time championship, is it really realistic to think that Djokovic can dominate Melbourne again, beating two dominant champions 14 and 16 years his junior? The fact that Djokovic has chosen not to play in the warm-up games means he needs to go the route of Serena Williams and compete without recent match play, which is obviously dangerous at his age.

(11) Daniil Medvedev

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The smart Medvedev teamed up with coach Thomas Johnson (2002 AO champion) and Australian Rohan Goetzke to demonstrate the power of positive thinking and ultimately capture the Brisbane title. Medvedev should arrive at Melbourne Park with the confidence that comes from this title and the fact that he has reached the AO final in three of the past five years, including 2024 when he led Sinner by two sets before hitting the wall, and 2022 when he led Rafael Nadal by two sets before the Spanish warrior’s epic comeback. Medvedev knows how to win in Australia and can shine in the second quarter of the draw, where third seed Alexander Zverev and seventh seed Felix Auger-Aliassime are the only two seeds above him. Medvedev looks healthy and his flat shots can provide a maddening challenge to AO.

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Although Maddie has shone at Melbourne Park, he has just come off a poor 2025 Grand Slam season, being defeated by American rookie Tenn in the AO second round before losing three consecutive Grand Slam first rounds, including the infamous US Open defeat to Benjamin Bonzi. Guess what? Medvedev is likely to face No. 25 seed Tian En in the fourth round. Tian was punished Medvedev When the former world No. 1 bowed out in the Beijing semifinals in September, she was leading 5-7, 7-5, 4-0. Medvedev still largely dislikes playing at the net, so shortening points could become an issue if he doesn’t get a serve. He was coming off one of his worst service seasons in recent times. While Medvedev ranks 10th in serving games, he ranks only 24th in serving games held in 2025, which is not a recipe for success.

(3) Alexander Zverev (Germany)

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The former Olympic gold medalist reached the 2025 AO finals with one of the biggest serves in the sport. When world No. 3 Zverev gets his first serve, he can command the match against just about anyone. Remember, Zverev nearly knocked out Sinner in last fall’s Vienna final, but ultimately lost 6-3, 3-6, 5-7. Zverev has excellent movement, can use his two-handed backhand across the court or in a straight line, and likes the conditions at Melbourne Park, where he reached the semi-finals in 2020 and 2024. The Grand Slam is Zverev’s best after the French Open – where he has a record of 31 wins and 10 losses, a winning rate of 76%. While he’s still chasing his first Grand Slam title, let’s not forget: Zverev has won the prestigious ATP Finals twice as well as an Olympic gold medal, so it’s clear he can handle the pressure of a big tournament when he’s on the field.

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While Zverev said all the right things about winning a Grand Slam, does he really believe it? Sinner defeated Zverev in the 2025 AO final, handing the powerful German his third loss in a Grand Slam final. A bigger problem is that Zverev’s forehand can spin and land short on the court, making him vulnerable and defensive since he likes to play outside the baseline. Ask yourself: If Zverev faced Sinner or Alcaraz at 5-3 or 30-all, do you really believe he had a chance to win that crucial forehand matchup? Although Zverev’s younger brother Misha is an excellent volleyer, his younger brother is less comfortable in the frontcourt, preferring to hit the ball from behind the baseline. On the face of it, Zverev’s draw looks more problematic than that of Djokovic or Medvedev, as he faces the big-serving Gabriel Diallo in his opening match and then goes on to face Alexander Muller or Australian Alexei Popyrin in the second round, who beat Djokovic at the U.S. Open a few years ago.

(8) Ben Shelton (USA)

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Big Ben looms large in professional competitions. With that powerful left-handed serve, Shelton soared to the AO semifinals last year. Shelton reached the quarter-finals on her debut in Melbourne two years ago. In fact, despite playing in only 13 majors main draws, Shelton reached the quarterfinals or better in three of the four majors. Shelton’s worst performance came when he knocked out eventual champion Alcaraz in the fourth round at Roland Garros last June. When Shelton hits his lethal southpaw serve, he’s difficult for anyone on any surface to handle. Shelton is a rare guy in that he is willing to attack in key spots and will continue to attack even if you get past him. Considering his 2025 U.S. Open campaign ended prematurely due to an arm injury against Adrian Mannarino, you have to think the explosive Shelton would be excited to be back, especially coming off a season in which he won the Canadian Masters 1000 title and qualified for the ATP Finals.

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Shelton’s return of serve and two-handed backhand are both in progress. In fact, Shelton’s break rate last season was only about 16%, ranking 43rd on the ATP Tour. As a result, he plays a lot of tiebreakers, which may be bullshit. Although Shelton worked hard to develop his backhand slice, he still tended to use a stiff arm on his two-handed backhand, sometimes pushing the ball instead of breaking it. So if you go up against Shelton on a big spot, you have to be willing to force him into a backhand pass because it often doesn’t look like he fully trusts that shot. Shelton faces a tough draw, opening against left-hander Hugo Humbert, with Gael Monfils likely to retire in the second round and possibly Mannarino or No. 30 seed Valentin Vaccello, who shocked the tennis world last fall with a fairytale run in Shanghai. Even if Shelton passes that challenge, he will face Sinner in the quarterfinals if the seeding team stays in good shape.

(5) Lorenzo Musetti (Italy)

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The 2019 Australian Open men’s champion has an AO record of just 3-4, with two first-round exits in four games. So why is Musetti on this list? He is one of the most talented players when it comes to changing spin and bat skills, and Musetti has a significant track record. Meuseman reached the semifinals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon and lost to Sinner in the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open last September. Musetti was ready for AO to reach the Hong Kong final and break into the top five for the first time – having reached the ATP final after Djokovic withdrew. In fact, Musetti has reached the quarterfinals or better in seven of the past 10 games. Musetti has one of the most dynamic one-handed backhands in tennis, and he was a one-handed backhand haven in the third period of the draw, with Grigor Dimitrov, Stefanos Tsitsipas and three-time Grand Slam champion Stan Wawrinka all in the mix.

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AO is the only major where Musetti has a losing record (3-4). When he doesn’t use his full-court skills and allows himself to be pushed back behind the baseline, sluggers can overwhelm him on faster surfaces. Musetti’s body declined at times during some punishing Grand Slam matches. he told Tennis Now in a pre-season interview Strengthening physical fitness is the focus of the offseason. Taylor Fritz, whom Musetti defeated in the 2024 Wimbledon semifinals, is the favorite this quarter, but the American has struggled with knee issues that have limited his offseason training, which is one of the reasons we included Musetti on this list, and we also like Musetti’s style of play at full speed.

(25) Learner Field (USA)

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If the ATP had a statistic about faltering opponents, Thien would definitely be among the tour leaders. The left-handed Tian is a smart, savvy player with an uncanny knack for putting the ball on his bat before hitting it. Tian’s strokes are difficult to read, and his performance at the 2025 AO competition unsettled three-time finalist Medvedev. Tian made huge improvements last season working with Hall of Famer Chang Te-pei. He ranks 12th in games won on tour, beating Musetti and Medvedev consecutively to reach the Beijing finals, losing to Sinner, and then winning consecutive titles in Metz and the Next Generation ATP finals.

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Compared to other players on this list, Tian’s serve is pretty bland. In AD, he doesn’t miss his left slider as consistently as you might think. Tien, 20, is 5-foot-11 and 160 pounds and could be vulnerable against stronger players and heavy hitters. Still, he’s an amazingly creative shot-stopper, and he’s a fierce competitor who rarely displays any negativity on the court, which is rare for such a young player.