By Richard Pagliaro Monday, March 2, 2026
Image source: BNP Paribas Open Facebook
Power players, prodigies and renaissance performers are all poised to make an impact in tennis heaven.
The singles draw for the 2026 BNP Paribas Open takes place today.
Here are our key takeaways from the women’s draw, which features former champions Mirra Andreeva, Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina, Naomi Osaka, Paula Badosa and Bianca Andreescu.
Aryna Sabalenka’s path to challenge
Alina Sabalenka The sting of defeat was felt in Melbourne.
The world No. 1 could face some painful and tough tests in Palm Springs.
Two-time finalist Sabalenka continues her quest for a first Indian Wells title, and her path to her third final in the last four years could look like this:
*R1: Goodbye
*R2: Alycia Parks or qualifier
*R3: (29) Maya Knuckle
*R4: (16) Naomi Osaka
*QF: (6) Amanda Anisimova
*SF: (4) Coco Goff
*F: (2) Iga Swiatek
When Osaka defeated Sabalenka in a tight fourth-round clash at the 2018 U.S. Open, it seemed like a prelude to an exciting rivalry. They haven’t played each other since, so a meeting between the four-time Grand Slam champions will be interesting, although Sabalenka has clearly outshone Osaka in recent years.
Sabalenka’s quarterfinal match against Anisimova will be a rematch of the 2025 US Open final. Anisimova, who hits flat ground, is one of the few women in the world who can beat Sabalenka, especially her two-handed backhand. Anisimova has a 6-5 record against Sabalenka, although the Wimbledon finalist has won just one of her past three Indian Wells appearances.
Montreal champion and No. 10 seed Victoria Mboko is also a danger to Sabalenka in the quarter. Mboko possesses a rare combination of speed and power, transitions smoothly from defense to attack, and can play his best tennis without fear. She showed it all last month when she beat Mira Andreeva, Elena Rybakina and Jelena Ostapenko in the Doha final.
Mirra Andreeva’s tough defense
The 18-year-old prodigy is under increasing pressure Mira Andreeva Because her goal is to defend Indian Wells.
A year ago, Andreeva won her second straight WTA 1000 title in Indian Wells, beating Elena Rybakina, Elina Svitolina, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka with poise and precision.
The crowned head is restless.
This year, the entire field is targeting Andreeva, who will face either Solana Serra or Austin champion Peyton Sterns.
Andreeva won this year’s title in Adelaide and lost to Victoria Mboko and Dubai’s Amanda Anisimova in consecutive third-set tiebreakers in Doha that left her in tears.
Andreeva is a fit, fast, and ferocious fighter, but the question is: How will she handle the pressure of defending a title and defending 1,000 points to stay in the top 10?
Clearest path to former champion
Elena Rybakina The view should have been appreciated from her position during the third quarter of the draw.
Rybakina arguably has the best trail of all the contenders in the field.
Three years ago, 2023 champion Rybakina beat Sabalenka in a tight final, where the tougher Indian Wells court gave her serve more bounce and gave her time to prepare for her first attack. The 2025 and 2026 WTA ace leader is second only to Sabalenka in service winning percentage this season (82.4%).
If the seeding stays true to form, third-seeded Rybakina’s path to a potential eventual return could look like this:
R1: Goodbye
R2: Hayley Baptiste or Emiliana Arango
R3: (28) Marta Kostiuk
R4: (15) Madison Keys
QF: (5) Jessica Pegula
Small Forward: (2) Iga Swiatek
F: (1) Alina Sabalenka
second in the world Iga Swiatek Championships in two of the last four years.
Swiatek’s twisting forehand topspin, flat backhand and speed on the court make her a disorienting opponent in the desert.
Expect another deep showing from Swiatek, who has won 20 of her past 22 Indian Wells matches with her only losses coming in the 2023 semifinals against Rybakina and the 2025 semifinals against Andreeva.
First-round games worth watching
(WC) Sloane Stephens (USA) v. Camila Osorio (COL)
Head to Head: First Meeting
Stephens, the 2017 U.S. Open champion, returns to Indian Wells 16 years after beating Lucie Hradecka to win her first tour-level main draw title at the 2010 BNP Paribas Open. Osorio, the 2019 U.S. Open women’s champion, has wins over Alexandra Eala, Emma Raducanu and Donna Vekic this season.
Yulia Putintseva (Kazakhstan) VS Paula Badosa (Spain)
Head-to-head: Badosa leads 4-1
Badosa, the 2021 Indian Wells champion, has struggled with chronic back issues, but when healthy, his shots remain clean and powerful. The 28-year-old Spaniard is aiming to return to the top 100. The cantankerous Putintseva, who has a knack for changing spins and irritating opponents, reached the last 16 at the Australian Open.
Antonia Ruzic (CRO) vs. (WC) Jennifer Brady (USA)
Head to Head: First Meeting
Although only 5 feet 6 inches tall, Ruzic is a dangerous player with an audacious two-handed backhand who once pushed Naomi Osaka into three sets at the Australian Open. A lucky loser, Ruzic defeated two Grand Slam champions – Emma Raducanu and reigning AO champion Elena Rybakina – to reach the quarterfinals in Dubai. Before a series of knee injuries derailed her career, Brady had arguably the heaviest topspin forehand in the sport, a shot the former UCLA standout used to reach a career-high ranking of No. 13 and reach the 2020 U.S. Open semifinals and 2021 AO finals.
Dark horse ready to go
We define dark horse as a player Outside the top 10 seedsTherefore, No. 10 seed Victoria Mboko, who is very capable of doing significant damage here, does not qualify.
12 Belinda Bencic (SUI)
Bencic was a 2019 Indian Wells semifinalist and reached the Indian Wells quarterfinals last March, defeating Amanda Anisimova and Coco Gauff in three sets. Former Olympic gold medalist Bencic excelled on hard courts, serving early and, against Martina Hingis, excelling in her two-handed backhand. If the seeding is true, Bencic will face No. 22 seed Elise Mertens in a rematch of January’s epic Fed Cup tie.
No. 13 Karolina Muchova (Czech Republic)
A stylish all-court player with a firm ability to change pace and close to the net, Muchova should be full of confidence after defeating Victoria Mboko to win the biggest title of her career at the WTA 1000 in Doha. Muchova, a former French Open finalist, has reached the semifinals or better in two of her three starts this season and has looked sharp against her former coach in Sven Groeneveld, Maria Sharapova and Ana Ivanovic. Muchova is within a quarter of world No. 2 Iga Swiatek. Last year, Swiatek swept Muchova 6-1, 6-1 in the round of 16 in Indian Wells.
17 Clara Towson (Denmark)
It’s been an up-and-down season so far for Towson, who suffered back-to-back first-round losses early in the year but bounced back to reach the semifinals in Abu Dhabi and the quarterfinals in Dubai. Indian Wells is no personal paradise for Towson, who is 3-3 throughout her time in the desert, including a 3-6, 0-6 loss to eventual champion Mira Andreeva last year, when the Russian beat her to the punch. Still, Towson’s serve, when it rings, is one of the greatest in the game, and she’s willing to live and die on a serve-first basis if she can survive a few tough early rounds – she’ll face the winner of the opening match between Paula Badosa and Yulia Putintseva – and she’s certainly capable of doing damage, although her movement has been exploited in the past on the slower Indian Wells courts.
