Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman said the Philippines’ economic growth will be chosen in the second semester, which is an expected rebound in government spending following the election-bound ban.
“Hope. I think it’s 6% [in the second semester],” Ms Pangandaman told reporters on Wednesday’s watch of the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) event.
She said the forecast depends on the speed of public spending after the election ban on public works. The 45-day ban began on March 28 and ended with the election on May 12.
“Our first semester performance is just at the low end of the program, so we have to grow 6% or higher in the second half of the year,” Romeo Matthew T. Balanquit, assistant budget secretary, told Business World.
GDP grew 5.5% in the second quarter, slightly higher than 5.4% prints in the first quarter, but slower than 6.5% a year ago.
In the first half of the year, GDP growth averaged 5.4%, slower than 6.2% a year ago.
Economy Minister Arsenio M. Balisacan said earlier that GDP must grow by 5.6% for the rest of the year to achieve the low end of the full-year target.
Ms Pangadaman said: “It’s better than 5.5% in the third quarter. Better because we start again. We release NCA (Cash Allocation Notice). You can see agencies start purchasing again.”
DBM’s latest payment report shows that government spending rose 21.2% in May to 578.2 billion. This is a shift in annual revenue of 27.8% in April due to the ban on public works spending.
The Budget Department has ordered government agencies to submit their “catch-up plan” to boost the remaining spending of the year.
“They have submitted their submitted plans and agency projects. But yes, we will get their catch-up plan as soon as possible and then post it to the public.”
When asked if she expects to revise the growth prospects of 5.5% to 6.5% this year, Ms. Pangandaman, the Chair Chairman, Chairman Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), said: “Not yet.”
She said the second meeting of the economic manager this year may be scheduled for the end of September.
DBCC revised its macroeconomic assumptions in July to reflect “a prospect of being more measurable and resilient in the context of global headwinds.”
But faster spending alone may not be enough to increase the second half of the year by more than 6%.
“Our forecast is below 6%,” he said in a Viber message, pointing to external risks, such as uncertainty in U.S. tariffs.
Trump imposed a 19% duty on the Philippines last month, which took effect on August 7.
The new rate is slightly lower than the 20% threat to impose in the U.S., but higher than the 17% tariff announced during the liberation day in April.
Mr. Peña-Reyes also noted that approvals for foreign investment commitments were lower, down 64.4 per cent in the second quarter to Peso 67.38 billion, down from Peso 189.5 billion in the same period last year. – Aubrey Rose A. Inosante
