Russia’s economy is now so militarized that it may continue to expand its military even after the Ukrainian war

• Russia’s military industry could expand even after the war in Ukraine ended, a think tank wrote.

• Military spending is driving Russia’s economy, maintaining its economy despite Western sanctions.

• Russia’s military economy is supporting political and economic stakeholders, preventing cuts.

Russia’s war machine has become an integral part of its economic engine, that is, the military industry may continue to expand even after the battle in Ukraine.

“The end of hostilities will not lead to the fundamental nature of military investment,” CSIS analysts wrote in a report released Thursday.

Now, in the fourth year, the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s administration sanctions on the West sweep. The report said that although the cracks began to show, the Russian economy may still be able to sustain a few years of war efforts.

Defense spending will set a post-Soviet record of 6.3% in 2025, despite signs of slowing down or recession rising.

“Russia’s economy appears to be sustainable in the coming years,” CSIS analysts wrote. They predict that the Kremlin can maintain its war of attrition by at least 2027.

“Russia may be preparing for some future confrontation with NATO”

The CSIS report was conducted in a re-examination of the Russian economy.

The manufacturing activity signed last month suffered losses. GDP growth fell to 1.4% in the first quarter, down sharply from 4.5% in the previous quarter.

Nevertheless, Russia has violated expectations due to the growing growth of its military industrial complex.

“It has become the most approved country in the world, and it has managed to manipulate around many economic restrictions, keeping revenue from energy sales and its budget balanced, investing in the military and defense industries, increasing domestic production of weapons and equipment, and enhancing economic growth,” the think tank analyst wrote.

Crucially, the militarized economy has established a wide range of political and economic stakeholders from elites to ordinary workers who benefit from ongoing conflict. This makes it unlikely that military activity will cause any significant reductions in political and economic terms.

Even if a ceasefire is reached, Russia can still rebuild and expand its armed forces in the next decade.

“The socio-economic changes caused by the Russian war are so significant that even when the war in Ukraine is over, the process of social militarization is unlikely to stop,” CSIS analysts wrote.

The Kremlin’s strategic posture has not diminished either. CSIS suggests that Russia is preparing for a long confrontation with NATO and leverages war to modernize its power and test Western determination.

In addition to traditional weapons, Russia has intensified hybrid wars, including cyberattacks, disinformation, destructive, political interventions, and strikes on critical infrastructure. These tools allow Moscow to operate actively in multiple aspects.

“Although in terms of its conventional capabilities, while NATO is inferior to NATO, Russia today has a greater challenge to European security than it was in early 2022,” CSIS analysts wrote.

The Kremlin is learning from past failures, adapting quickly, and becoming more confident about the West’s unwillingness to stop it.

“The massive military reforms underway in Moscow show that Russia may be preparing for some kind of confrontation with NATO in about the next decade, including even large-scale conventional wars,” they wrote.

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