As the Royal Highland Show takes place in Edinburgh, Scotland’s meat and agricultural sectors have raised new concerns about the impact of the UK trade deal on domestic agriculture, warning that meat imports from countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Brazil have undermined the stability of the domestic market.
Scotland Quality Meat Scotland (QMS), a national marketing and research institution for the red meat industry, said that although farmers are not opposed to trade in principle, the “spread” of imported meat through multiple post-Brexit transactions could accumulate threats to Scotland’s food security and agricultural sustainability.
“We are not afraid of trade,” said QMS CEO Sarah Millar. “But it has to be done on a fair, fair basis. When all these trades are together, they have an unstable effect.”
Warnings have raised warnings amid optimism in other corners of the industry, new markets in regions such as the United Arab Emirates (which began importing Scotland lambs last year) and India’s recent UK trade deal cuts import taxes on Scotch whisky in half.
However, QMS is urging policy makers to consider the cumulative effects of overlapping trade agreements, rather than evaluating each agreement in isolation.
According to the QMS model, by 2030, Scotland will need an additional 79,000 cows to replace imported beef with native alternatives, which is equivalent to adding two animals per year. If exports expand to markets such as the United States, the figure will climb or even higher, as the United States is currently facing a beef shortage, which will face beef shortages over the long term due to the drought.
However, as Scottish bull populations have declined for a long time, industry leaders say supply restrictions could undermine any export opportunity gains.
The post-Brexit trade agreement with Australia came into effect in May 2023 and remains a special pain for British farmers. This is the first such agreement signed since the UK left the EU, and many in many areas believe it has granted too many opportunities to foreign producers at the expense of British standards.
Since then, agreements have been reached in principle for about 70 countries, prompting a re-examination by trade unions and trade groups.
The Scotch Whisky Association welcomes Indian deals, predicting exports to rise by £1 billion over the next five years, while the UK has a new job of £1,200. Meanwhile, Scottish barley growers hope that the increasing demand for malt will increase planting opportunities.
Neil White, a barley farmer on the Scottish border, said his operations could almost double if prices were raised.
“I currently grow 25-30% of spring barley,” he said. “If the premium is there, I can grow more. It’s a relatively cheap crop and we have a local prestige market.”
It is also hoped that the recently updated EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement could relax the Tsai Tape Festival at the border and help small food producers and the ground potato industry, which has been estimated to have lost £75 million in sales over the past five years.
However, some are cautious about consistency with EU rules without direct investment in their creation. NFU Scotland said it welcomes a “reset” in the relationship but warns of future risks.
“Restoring a lost market is crucial,” said Jonnie Hall, NFU’s Scottish Policy Director. “But anything imported into the UK is just as important as the same production and welfare standards as our homemade food.”
Hall stressed that any relaxation of food import standards, such as allowing hormone treatment from the United States, is unacceptable.
“At the moment, we’re all staring at the crystal ball,” he added. “We need to look at the real details to understand the meaning.”
With meat imports increasing and under pressure on livestock, Scottish farmers have called for a joint trade approach that supports export ambitions without undermining the integrity and competitiveness of native foods. As global transactions reproduce, the balance between opportunity and risk remains refined.
