At the beginning of the year, senior Wall Street executives prepared for the deal wave, and policies under the second Trump administration are expected to intensify mergers and acquisitions. Their institutions did see unexpected gains from the government’s economic agenda, but not by their initial expectations. Trump’s economic script did not trigger a merger and acquisition boom, but dominated by tariff-driven market volatility. Now, this turmoil is providing record transaction revenue for large banks.
“I suspect that volatility will be a feature of the new world order – not a mistake,” Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser told analysts on July 15.
Citigroup’s trading revenue rose to $5.9 billion in the April-June quarter, up 16% from the same period last year, driven by growth in stocks and FICC growth (fixed income, currencies and commodities).
Other major banks have also released excellent trading results. According to the bank’s July 16 tax call, Bank of America’s sales and transaction revenue rose 15% to $5.4 billion, its 13th consecutive quarter of growth.
Morgan Stanley reported a record quarter in stock trading, with revenues of $3.72 billion and $3 billion a year ago reaching $3.72 billion. At JPMorgan Chase, FICC and stock revenue rose 14% and 15% year-on-year, respectively. Goldman Sachs surpassed everyone, with stock trading revenue soaring 36%. CEO David Solomon said the gains stem from political uncertainty that “drives clients to reposition portfolios in asset classes.”
Overall, market volatility drove Wall Street’s five largest banks to the second quarter’s transaction revenue totaled $33.8 billion, up 17% year-on-year, according to financial news analysis.
Has M&A rebounded?
Financial leaders initially predicted that Trump’s growth-making and deregulated agenda would resume M&A activities. However, so far, the deal has started very slowly. In April, the United States recorded the lowest monthly acquisition number since May 2009.
Despite this, some signs of a rebound are still emerging. At JPMorgan, investment banking fees (including M&A services) were 7% year-on-year. “[Investment banking] The activity started slowly, but as market sentiment improved, the activity began.
Goldman Sachs saw a higher growth, with investment banking fees rising 26% compared to the same quarter of 2024. “While activity was slower in the first half of the quarter, M&A has been 30% higher so far, 15% higher than the year-over-year five-year average, adding that “Solomon” said: “It’s an out-of-time environment.
