By Richard Pagliaro Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Image source: Australian Open Facebook
It was a perfect Final Four at Melbourne Park.
This is the fifth time in the Open era that all four players have reached a Grand Slam semi-final without dropping a set – following the 1970 Australian Open, 1976 US Open, 1980 US Open and 1995 French Open.
World number one Aryna Sabalenka is trying to regain the Australian Open title she won twice, WTA Finals champion Elena Rybakina is targeting her second career Grand Slam title, while 30-somethings Elina Svitolina and Jessica Pegula are both vying for their first Grand Slam title.
Here’s our 2026 Australian Open semi-finals preview and predictions.
(1) Aryna Sabalenka VS (12) Elina Svitolina (UK)
Head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 5-1
Grand Slam clash: Sabalenka leads 1-0
Australian Open record: Sabalenka 33 wins and 6 losses (best result: champions in 2023 and 2024); Svitolina 34-12 (best result: semifinals in 2026)
2026 record: Sabalenka 10-0; Svitolina 10-0
Career Grand Slam record: Sabalenka 105-26; Svitolina 113-47
Career Grand Slam titles: Sabalenka 4, Svitolina: None
Age: Sabalenka 27; Svitolina 31
Height: Sabalenka 5’11”; Svitolina 5’9″
Career bonuses: Sabalenka $45,397,966; Svitolina $26,695,471
Aryna Sabalenka on Elina Svitolina:
“It’s going to be a battle because… these are unbelievable players. I think my approach is going to be the same. It doesn’t matter who I face. I’m going to keep going, I’m going to focus on myself and my game and I’m going to fight for every point. That’s my approach.”
Elina Svitolina on Aryna Sabalenka:
“It’s no secret she’s a very strong player. I’ve seen some of her games [quarterfinal] match. She plays great tennis and I think, you know, strength in all aspects of her game is her strength. Yeah, I think she’s been very consistent in everything she’s done on the court the last few years. Yeah, for me, I have to prepare for that and try to find ways and little holes, little opportunities in her game. Of course, you know, when you play against top players, you have to find these little opportunities and be ready to take them. ”
Why Aryna Sabalenka will win
The No. 1 player in the world is the player who is more explosive with every shot. Sabalenka has dominated Australia by winning 31 of her last 32 matches in Melbourne. Sabalenka works as a co-coach with former doubles world No. 1 Max Mirnyi, adding smart and nuanced detail to her strength-based baseline game. She occasionally plays serve and volley, improving her backhand slice and hitting lobs at the right time. Sabalenka is a physically strong player who has won 12 consecutive Grand Slam matches in the semifinals. When Sabalenka is in play, she can command the serve, dominate the return, and overwhelm her opponents from the baseline. Sabalenka is clearly the best player in the world and will reach her eighth Grand Slam final in the past 12 Grand Slam tournaments.
Why Elena Svitolina will win
At the end of 2025, Svitolina underwent a four-month mental health break and emerged mentally, physically and emotionally renewed. Svitolina, 31, reaffirmed her competitive identity and beat defending French Open champion Coco Gauff 6-1, 6-2 in one of the most comprehensive matches of her Grand Slam career. Yes, Sabalenka is better, but Svitolina was arguably the most accurate striker in the semifinals. Svitolina leads the match with 25 breaks of serve, and if she can break serve early, she can put pressure on the often inconsistent Sabalenka. Svitolina is seeking her first Grand Slam title and first Grand Slam final. Every time she steps on the court, the 31-year-old Ukrainian is fighting for a cause greater than herself – she is a national hero who brings pride and hope to people under siege due to Russia’s unprovoked invasion. This is a powerful force that can put Svitolina in trouble.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka d. Elena Svitolina Group 2
(6) Jessica Pegula (USA) vs. (5) Elena Rybakina (Kazakhstan)
Head-to-head: Draw 3-3
Grand Slam clash: first major event
Australian Open record: Pegula 20-6 (best result: 2026 semifinals); Rybakina 19-6 (best result: 2023 finalist)
2026 record: Pegula 8-1; Rybakina 7-1
Career Grand Slam record: Pegula 62-27; Rybakina 64-22
Career Grand Slam wins: Pegula none; Rybakina 1 (Wimbledon 2022)
Age: Pegula, 31; Rybakina, 26
Height: Pegula 5’7″; Rybakina 6’0″
Career bonus: Pegula $21,944,750; Rybakina $24,476,357
Jessica Pegula on Elena Rybakina:
“Just Rybakina 而言，我刚刚在利雅得与她交手。她打得非常好。显然赢得了比赛。这将非常艰难。任何像她一样发球的人，她总是会参加比赛。不仅仅是发球，而且是从地面接发球。你知道，这不像她只能发球。她有一个非常全面、全面的力量比赛。我将看看我在利雅得所做的一些事情，看看是否可以我可以改变一些东西，但是，是的，从现在开始事情不会变得更容易。”
Elena Rybakina on Jessica Pegula:
“I would say, but the most important thing for me is to focus on my serve because that’s a big advantage if it works and to be aggressive in the rallies…[Pegula] A very experienced opponent, she moves well and keeps her ball low. So sometimes it’s a little difficult to play her, but I try my best to adjust. Yeah, we’ll see who wins. I talk to my team. We made some plans for the game. Yes, I will definitely try my best. “
Why Jessica Pegula will win
Pegula’s template for winning this match came from her quarterfinal victory over Amanda Anisimova, who, like Rybakina, is a tall power player who can crush a two-handed backhand. The flat-hitting Pegula had to keep the ball low to bend the 6-foot Rybakina, who struggled to get into the low ball at times. Pegula is the better mover, and if she can get the WTA Finals champion to move from corner to corner, she can eliminate mistakes and erode the former Wimbledon champion’s confidence. Yes, Pegula faced the biggest servers in women’s tennis, but she was always a sniper on the return. Pegula broke serve 24 times in five games, second only to Svitolina (25 times). The heart of this game was Pegula’s ability to extend his scoring runs versus Rybakina’s ability to eliminate them. If Pegula can play to the high level she did against Anisimova and let Rybakina hit extra balls, she can win.
Why Elena Rybakina will win
Aryna Sabalenka is the best tennis player in the world, but Elena Rybakina has been playing the best tennis in the world over the past four months. Rybakina defeated Iga Swiatek, Pegula and Sabalenka to win the WTA Finals and dominate Riyadh. In the AO quarter-finals, Rybakina hit 11 aces and defeated Swiatek 7-5, 6-1, although his serve hit rate was only 49%. Rybakina not only defeated Swiatek, she also defeated the Pole’s belief. The red-hot Rybakina notched her 18th victory in her past 19 starts, and has recorded eight consecutive top-10 wins in that span. Rybakina, the 2025 WTA ace leader, will win because she can disarm Pegula with her serve and beat her with her first shot. Rybakina commanded the center of the court, leading the field with 35 aces, and in the all-important second-serve scoring category, Rybakina scored 61% of her second-serve points. The 2023 AO finalist is confident that if she can keep her composure, she will go on to make the finals.
Prediction: Elena Rybakina d. Jessica Pegula Group 3
