National Government (NG) Record record of outstanding debts According to the Ministry of Finance (BTR) data, the P1756 trillion as of the end of July violated its full-year forecast for 2025.
BTR’s latest data shows that outstanding debt soared from P15.69 trillion in July 2024.
That is already 1.15% higher than the estimated P17.336 billion miles of debt at the end of 2025.
Despite exceeding the 2025 forecast, the Ministry of Finance said debt stocks are expected to fall at the end of the year as the government paid pesos of 814.2 billion in domestic bonds in December.
BTR said monthly, NG debt is up 1.7% from June’s P17.27 trillion P17.27 trillion, BTR said.
NG debt is the total amount the Philippine government owes creditors such as international financial institutions, development partners, banks, global bondholders and other investors.
“To mitigate foreign exchange risks, the government continues to favor domestic borrowing to deepen the local capital market, obtaining financing consisting of 76% domestic financing and 24% external borrowing,” the Treasury Department said.
“So the domestic component of debt stocks rose to 68.9% at the end of July from 68.1% at the end of 2024.”
Domestic borrowings rose 12.6% to P12.11 trillion by the end of July, up from $10.7.5 trillion in the same month last year.
This is already 0.52% higher than the P12.04 trillion domestic debt forecast at the end of the year.
Domestic borrowings were slightly 1.3% in the month, up from the P11.9.5 trillion at the end of June.
Domestic loans are mainly composed of government securities.
On the other hand, as of the end of July, foreign debt rose from P4.94 trillion P5.46 trillion a year ago. This also surpassed the P532 billion USD foreign debt forecast for 2.63%.
In one month, foreign debt was P5.32 trillion at the end of June.
Foreign debt is mainly composed of 22.79 trillion p2.79 trillion p2.67 trillion p2.67 trillion p2.67 trillion in global bonds.
Foreign debt securities are composed of USD 22.7 trillion USD bonds, 22.46 billion pesos of euro bonds, 58.5 billion pesos of yen bonds, 5.819 billion Islamic certificates, and 54.77 billion PESO global bonds.
As of the end of July, NG guaranteed obligations rose 2.4% to 352.97 billion pesos a year ago.
In a month, it was also 2.3% higher than the end-stage level of 64.511 billion p34.51 billion.
“The Malcos government secures its commitment to prudent debt management by leveraging strong investors’ confidence in PESO’s devaluable securities while ensuring the lowest cost of borrowing and supporting fiscal sustainability, inclusive growth and a stronger Philippines economy,” Treasury said.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael L. Ricafort said debt rose as the government increased borrowing to bridge the budget gap.
The fiscal deficit grew by 22.04% to Rs 78,44 crore from January to July as state spending is faster. BTR said this is expected to reach the revised P1.56-100 million-year full-year deficit ceiling.
Mr Ricafort said: “(Debt) could violate P18 trillion at a year-to-date growth rate by the end of 2025.
However, he noted that this could be addressed by large-scale mature NG obligations, especially in August and September.
“This (debt rise) is worrying, but not entirely unexpected, given the ongoing demand for borrowing, weaker Philippine peso and demand for expenditures related to infrastructure, subsidies and tariff-related buffers,” Philippine development researcher John R. Rivera said in a Viber message.
Mr Rivera said that if current trends persist, such as “moderate income growth” and “large spending demand such as flooding, NG debt levels may exceed year-end forecasts Control, defense and infrastructure projects. ”
Earlier, the finance department predicted that by 2026, the finance department would reach Peso 19.1 trillion, by 2027, by 2028, by 2028, P21.9 trillion, and by 2029, P23.4 trillion.
At the end of the second quarter, NG debt, as the share of GDP, soared to 63.1%, the highest since 2005. This exceeds the 60% debt that multilateral lenders believe can manage to the GDP threshold to the economy.
The DOF expects the debt-to-GDP ratio to decrease to 61.3% by the end of 2025 and eventually to 58% by 2030. Aubrey Rose A. Inosante
