Why is Novak Djokovic’s legendary return crucial to his pursuit of a 25th Grand Slam? ATP Tour

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Why Djokovic’s legendary return is crucial in his pursuit of a 25th Grand Slam

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyzes the Serbian’s iconic shots

January 29, 2026

Novak Djokovic is widely regarded as one of the best returners in tennis history. The Serbian has a better return win rate than any active player and has put the best servers under pressure throughout his career.

The 38-year-old needs to return to Rod Laver Arena in top form on Friday night if he hopes to end his five-game losing streak against two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner.

An analysis by Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers suggests that return has been one of the Serbian’s biggest strengths, but he has struggled against Sinner in recent matchups.

The Italians lead their Lexus ATP Head2Head series 6-4, including five straight wins since Sinner won the Davis Cup in November 2023. The PIF ATP No. 2 player can become the first player to win six consecutive tour-level matches against Djokovic.

But the ten-time Australian Open champion can rely on his signature return to get off to a strong start on the road to fending off that history. In his losing streak against Sinner, the 24-time Grand Slam champion had not broken serve more than twice in a match, and he failed to earn a break point in either of his defeats.

In the past four encounters with Sinner, Djokovic has blown away eight chances in 61 rematches, and his rematch winning rate in these encounters is only 3.3%. It was a far cry from the Serbs’ long run of excellence.

Djokovic has proven over the years that he has the kryptonite of the best servers in the world. After entering the Australian Open, Djokovic’s career return win rate reached 31.6%, ranking seventh in historical records. From 2009 to 2021, the 101-time Tour level champion won at least 30% of his return games every season, including an astonishing 38.8% win rate in 2011. He has finished sixth or better on Tour every year since 2021.

Career Return Game Win Rate % – Active Players

So far, in this Australian Open, Djokovic’s rematch winning rate has reached 36%, breaking through 18 out of 50 games. These matches are not against a player like Sinner, who has led the ATP Tour in serve wins over the past two seasons, according to Infosys ATP Statistics.

But it’s still a positive sign for Djokovic, who has won more first-serve points than semifinalists Sinner (32%), Carlos Alcaraz (35%) and Alexander Zverev (32%) over the two weeks.

Having said that, Djokovic is aware of the challenges ahead of him, especially Sinner and Alcaraz, who have swept the past eight Grand Slams.

“Are they better than me and everyone else right now? Yes, they are. I mean, their quality and level is amazing. It’s amazing. It’s phenomenal,” Djokovic said after advancing to the semifinals. “But does that mean I’m going to raise the white flag and quit? No. I’m going to fight to the last shot, to the last bit and try my best to challenge them.”

Retro returns will be key to achieving this goal.